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Looking for a Better Way

(This was a response to my a comment from "Adblocking is Missing the Point."  It got way too long, so I decided to make another blog entry instead.)

Hi Chris,

Actually, I'm aware of the cost per mille model.  I guess it sounds like I’m speaking out of complete ignorance, but really I’m just trying to speak to how I think things should be, not necessarily how they are.

You're assuming that ads only make money for a publisher when they're clicked on. They aren't.

That’s not it at all.  What I’m saying is that when the publisher gets paid for my impression (specifically me), the advertiser is not getting value.  Neither am I.  If this phenomenon grows, the publisher will eventually lose out as well.

I’m Not Denying the Revenue

Let’s look at the numbers.  Your site gets 3% CTR and that’s considered pretty good.  However, another way to put that is that 97% of your readers are served up junk.  Even if you quadrupled or quintupled the positive effect the CTR may indicate, that still leaves 85% of your readers out in the cold.  I’m not denying the revenue it generates for you or the sales for your advertisers.  But what I’m asking is: isn’t there a better way?  There is a huge inefficiency there somewhere.  This is the shotgun blast to which I referred.

The Billboard Model vs. The Internet

Let’s also look at the model you cite when you speak of billboards and BMWs.  Back in the day, the only way to reach people was to broadcast, via radio, television and the like.  That was how companies formed “relationships” with people - by being omnipresent, they created a sense of familiarity within their potential customers.  This familiarity made customers more likely to purchase a product from them rather than a relatively unknown competitor.

Is this really how things operate these days?  Is the internet just a billboard on your computer screen?

I’m postulating that if you look around, you’ll notice that the old model is breaking down.  If you’re trying to decide whether or not a certain company’s product is worth the risk of purchase, you don’t care if they are familiar to you from television, glossy magazine ads…or banners on blogs.  What you are looking for are more accurate measures of their reputation.  Sites like Facebook, Yelp (despite the controversy), FourSquare and blogs like yours (the articles, not the ads, ironically) better serve this need.

Are you really buying the BMW because they say they are the “ultimate driving machine?”  I’m guessing you’re buying it because they make a great product and just about anyone who has one has only good things to say about it.  Let’s see how well those ad impressions work once rumors of  stuck accelerators start floating around.

There’s Got to Be a Better Way

In the end, I’m speaking as a consumer who sees an inefficiency and wants there to be a better way.  I’m not trying to get rid of ads, I want them to work better.  As subtle, insidious and lucrative the business of advertising is (yeah, I watch Mad Men), I still believe it can be improved.

After all, back when Yahoo was king ten years ago, CPM was the dominant form of internet advertising, and even though…

"...nobody at the time thought there was anything wrong with Overture’s model — it was making lots of money..."

...Google came along and developed CTR.  I just don’t think we’re done yet.

Posted by Anthony 

Comments (3)

Mar 07, 2010
cheald said...
Fair warning: Essay ahead. I started typing and then all these words came out. :P

Great response. I'm fully on-board with you as to how things "should be". I guess I read your post in a "the existing model is dumb and doesn't work" tone, and the intent of my response was to communicate "well, it's probably smarter than most of us think, and does work". However, by no means do I discount the idea that there might be a better way!

In an ideal world, we wouldn't need "shotgun ads" to make money, but unfortunately, micropayments have proved really hard to deploy as easily and profitably as ads.

I would argue that the "omnipresence factor" is still important, just due to the nature of human psychology. The more you see something, the more ingrained a brand becomes in your subconscious, and even the more you see Product X (in an ad) alongside content you enjoy (Ars Technica, in this case), the more you tend to form a subconscious positive association with that product. The business of marketing is often not the business of selling (convincing people to buy a product), but more insidiously the business of manipulation. I don't have to convince you to buy my product. I just have to get it into your head, so that the next time you're in proximity to my product, you're going to remember it. We all like to think that we're smarter than that, but legions of psychologists, sociologists, and marketing MBAs have figured out that we aren't quite as immune as we'd like to think.

The best marketer isn't the one who creates an ad that makes a product look impressive (I'm looking at you, every boring-as-sin Super Bowl car commercial ever), but the one who creates an ad that people remember and talk about, even in a negative context (Go Daddy's censored ads (negative/positive), classic Bud Light commercials (positive), Evony ads (negative) (nested parentheses (I am writing Lisp at this point))).

You are right a - 3% CTR means a 97% non-CTR. However, I can't think of -any- conversion model that offers rates that don't leave a significant level of "junk". If you find one, let me know, we'll go into business together and swim around in swimming pools of gold pieces like Scrooge Mcduck. :)

I absolutely, utterly, 110% agree with your idea that consumers are becoming more impressed with reputation than omnipresence. I've built my business on that postulation, but I think that's step 2 in the purchasing process. Step 1 is being aware of the product in the first place, which is where advertising comes into play. I think that the numbers from advertising agencies would show a direct correlation between "shotgun advertising" and an increase in sales. The internet is making that shotgun a bit more targeted, so even if I'm only getting a 3% CTR, the ads are mostly going to be relevant to my users' interests, so even if they don't take a quantifiable action, there may still be an indirect benefit to the advertiser. Ad targeting technology is getting better and better - ads in Google search results are a great example. Sometimes, I'll click an ad in a search because the ad is relevant to the answer I'm trying to answer, and may serve the dual purpose of being an ad (for the advertiser) and being useful content/information (for me).

Your original assertion was "advertising is broken anyway! It’s a mechanism that provides no value to anybody", which I flatly disagree with; it provides value to advertisers by quantifiably increasing their sales, mindshare, and brand presence (while, by exclusion, diminishing their competitors' brand presence); it provides value to users by preventing content sites from having to directly bill users for content; and it provides value to content providers by enabling them to publish their content without a direct cost to the consumer. Direct cost kills conversions (hi there paywalls), no conversions kills your product. A dead product makes no money or content for anyone.

As someone in the publisher game, your sentiment seems typically naive - "I don't click them, and -I'm- too smart to be influenced by them, ergo they are junk for the entire userbase". I tend to think like this, too, but apparently the people paying for the ads don't, and they're the ones paying cold hard cash for ad spots. Obviously they are deriving value from them (or else they wouldn't buy them), which means that someone clicks them, and/or we aren't all as smart as we think (and are thus not quite as able to filter out the influence of ads as we'd like to think).

As a consumer, I really do hear, understand, and agree with what you're saying, in abstract. In my perfect world, I would be able to support worthwhile content sites that are currently ad-driven (Ars, Reddit, etc) in a way that a) doesn't "junk up" my experience, and b) doesn't directly cost me anything (do you have any idea how much money I would spend on Reddit if I paid a thousandth of a cent per page view? :P). Ads violate (a), micropayments violate (b). I don't think we've found Option C, yet, and while I absolutely agree that it's worth pursuing alternatives, I don't think that the existing model is necessarily "broken and dying". It works, even if it's not perfect.

The lead developer/manager of a development team I used to work for had a saying: "don't let perfect be the enemy of good". That is, don't kill a good solution just because it's not a perfect solution. A good solution is better than a bad solution, which is still better than no solution. I think this applies to online revenue models. Advertising is a "good" revenue model. It's not a perfect one. It's not even the best one we can come up with, but it is a low-friction means to financial viability that doesn't have a severe impact on development time or conversion rates.

Honestly, I want the nature of revenue on the internet to evolve just as much as you do - I want a better way to fund my products while providing better, more enjoyable user experiences. I dislike an awful lot of how the advertising game works right now, but am somewhat resigned to it as the lesser of the available evils. Paywalls suck. Freemium/SaaS works, but only in select products. Micropayments have been trying to gain traction - and failing - for years now. Affiliate sales can work, but often lead to deceptive user experiences in a desperate bid to generate enough sales to cover costs. Sponsored content is "better" (it's closer to the magazine concept of ads), but it presupposes a certain amount of scale and has higher manpower (and thus, production) costs.

Ads are what's left. You can run ads on a tiny site or a huge site; you can run unobtrusive ads that people don't mind turning off adblock for (Hi, Reddit!) or you can run pop-overs and seizure-inducing banners that will leave me sprinting for the nearest adblock button. I've turned down a number of ad offers from publishers that would be more lucrative in terms of raw numbers, but would compromise my users' experience by making the site suck (popovers, ads with sound, etc). Part of that is that I'm a consumer, and I hate those sorts of ads with a passion, and don't want to be associated with them. Part of that is that I want that form of advertising to die off, and don't want to support it. Part of it is that it isn't worth the loss of user trust (WTF, when did you start running these pop-over ads that completely ruin my browsing experience? You suck!), since my product aims to be for the consumer first, advertiser second.

I honestly think that Adblock is the product of popups and popovers, taser-the-monkey, yellow-and-purple seizure-banners, and HI THERE CHECK OUT MY BOOBS crap. The trashy, annoying, obtrusive, frustrating ads - you know the type. They're the kind of problem in need of a solution. Well-behaved ads, Google text links, and the like I don't mind in the slightest. I keep my adblock off for Reddit (and now Ars, since they've asked nicely) and other such sites that are responsible advertising publishers. I keep it on for the rest of the internet by default - yes, even though my business is ad-driven, as a consumer I use AdBlock by default, partially for security, partially to mitigate the annoyance that is the crapware-infested ad ecosystem these days.

Perhaps the middle ground is a way to separate the responsible advertisers from the worthless vultures who will just shove anything that someone will pay them for into your face. Maybe if AdBlock tied into Firefox's "you've visited this site X times" feature, it could learn about the sites you frequent, and politely ask you to turn AdBlock off for that site. I don't quite know what the solution is, but it is worth searching for.

I have now written far too much on far too long a tangent, and will shut up before I do any more damage. :)

Mar 08, 2010
Anthony said...
I’m glad to have had this discussion. At this point, I think we’ve come to the same conclusions, with the remaining differences attributable to having slightly different perspectives. But I think we both agree that the system we currently have is the worst form available, except for all the forms that have been tried. For now, I agree that the best thing we can do is what you suggest and “separate the responsible advertisers from the worthless vultures,” at least until someone smarter than I comes up with the new system that will make this conversation moot.
Mar 11, 2010
Anthony said...
Didn't want to make another post, but here's an article from Drawar.com that makes the same point I do, but with better arguments and in more detail than I could:

http://www.drawar.com/articles/dont-let-ads-kill-your-site/61/

Also, it sounds like Gruber and Coudal are going to be talking about this very subject at SXSW this year. I wish I could be there to hear it.

http://my.sxsw.com/events/event/617

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